Sport is really not very important. It’s merely a diversion and not at all a key part of humankind’s progress. It’s essentially trivial! Sport is not essential to humankind’s progress in any utilitarian sense. Civilisation would survive without it, and none of humanity’s great intellectual advances depend on it.
But one might reasonably take the alternative view: sport is really important! It is a sophisticated form of play that channels deep human instincts into (usually) non-destructive forms, creates social cohesion, and gives meaning to leisure in complex societies. It provides a way of spending time either personally engaged in it or watching it. Maybe even entering into some minor wagers surrounding sporting results. It is also the foundation of much social interaction and the source of endless debates and even arguments. The huge economic impact of sport shouldn’t be underestimated!
Misquoting the famous Liverpool manager Bill Shankly’s well known comment
“Some people think sport is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it’s much more serious than that.”
So with that in mind and focussing on one of my favourite sports, let’s think about the really important golfing events of 2026 and speculate as to who, at least in the men’s professional game, will triumph and who may ‘bomb’!
So what happened last year?
2025 was a great golfing year. Potentially one of the most significant ever say some! McIlroy finally won at Augusta and achieved the career Grand Slam. Scheffler continued to be unassailable as the world number one. JJ Spaun was a key breakout player winning the US Open in foul conditions and Tommy Fleetwood did what many believed was possible by getting his first victory on the PGA Tour by winning the Tour Championship and with it the FedEx Cup. Then there was the small matter of Europe winning the Ryder Cup in the fiercely hostile environment of Bethpage on Long Island.
How to predict the future in golf
In golf, as in most sports, predictions are difficult to make. One can look very foolish very easily. But the following should be taken merely as a device to promote discussion. It’s based on my “gut feelings” having closely followed men’s professional golf for two decades. I’m helped a little by the Official World Golf Rankings and very much more by the far superior analytics of Data Golf.
What I’ve tried to do is to consider some of the key events of the year (the Players Championship, the four Majors, the Tour Championship and the Race to Dubai) and speculate as to who the top five players might be, who might be other contenders including breakthrough players and who might disappoint.
Let’s begin with some general thoughts.
It’s really hard to stay at the top in golf for long periods. Historically extended periods of near-total dominance are rare (unless your name is Woods). Might Scheffler start to fade? Can he maintain his stellar form? In his favour is his extraordinary demeanour. Golf isn’t that important to him: other things are and maybe that’s his super strength! My own feelings is that it’s really tough to stay at the top but his desire for the career Grand Slam (at Shinnecock Hills) may be telling.
LIV players seem to not thrive when they get to the Majors and other mainstream events. Witness the failure of Smith, Niemann, Rahm and others to contend – although Hatton and de Chambeau buck that trend. Koepka has left LIV and is in the four Majors and maybe will sharpen his teeth in DP World events. But his form hasn’t been good. I’d be pessimistic about his chances.
After an apparent dip after the Masters, McIlroy won the Irish Open and a sixth Order of Merit (Race to Dubai). Winning three Sports Personality titles (UK, Northern Ireland and Irish) probably boosted his inner belief. Will he kick on wanting to be the best Europe has ever had beating Faldo’s 6 majors and Montgomery’s 8 Orders of Merit? I think he still has the fire!
A number of players had a great 2025 and are trending (Fleetwood, Aberg, MacIntyre, Griffin, Henley, Straka, the Hojgaard’s) and Rose was at times sublime. Will Spaun continue his form? Others have been sliding: Schauffle and Morikawa spring to mind. Speith seems to be a spent force.
The other point that must be considered is that there are a hundred or so really great players and the next hundred or so are not far behind. Some are really trending and Penge, Rai, Noren and Fox spring to mind. But there are so many one could mention.
The Players, the Masters and the season ending events are on the same courses every year while the other majors are on relatively unfamiliar courses. The PGA Championship hasn’t been at Aronimink since 1962, although it did have the BMW Championship in 2018. The US Open was last at Shinnecock Hills in 2018 when Koepka pipped Fleetwood to the title. Speith won the last Open at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in 2017. As always the weather and side of draw can have a major impact.
The fields are strong and very deep. It’s hard to see that there is a single dominant player (assuming Scheffler’s imperious form dips a little). So predictions are really difficult!
I will probably be very very wrong . . . but let’s have a go…
The Players
Sawgrass rewards elite driving but needs control and a deft short game. McIlroy’s comfort level there is now unusually high. However history says a wide range of players can win at Sawgrass.
Top five: McIlroy, Min Woo Lee, the elite driving and ball striking of Fleetwood,, Aaron Rai’s consistency.
Breakthrough: Penge is a burgeoning talent whose game might suit Sawgrass.
Disappointment: after a reasonable start to the season Scheffler fades
Winner: McIlroy
The Majors
These events are all so different, each with their own personalities and characteristics.
The Masters
Historically past experience matters hugely at Augusta, although Aberg was second in his first visit and except for a wayward triple at the last hole in 2025 would have been third. McIlroy’s breakthrough last year may make him a real contender.
Top five: Aberg, McIlroy, Connors, DeChambeau, Fleetwood
Breakthrough: MacIntyre or a Hojgaard
Disappointment: Rahm
Winner: Aberg
The PGA Championship
Aronimink is a relatively unknown quantity since it has not had a professional event since 2018, so predictions are particularly difficult. However, it’s worth noting that the BMW Championship at Aronimink in 2018 was won by Keegan Bradley with Rose in second place and with strong outings by McIlroy (5th) and Fleetwood (8th). This might be important but this one is probably wide open!
Top five: Straka, Griffin, Henley, Rose, Bradley (Ryder Cup redemption perhaps)
Breakthrough: Rai (tenacious and an all round game)
Disappointment: Rahm
Winner: Straka
The US Open
Shinnicock Hills is a beast and renowned for fast and difficult greens. Ball striking and putting are at a premium.
Top five: DeChambeau, MacIntyre, Spaun, Scheffler, Fleetwood
Breakthrough: Fleetwood’s first major perhaps. He was a strong contender in 2018 and now has real belief. By June, Marco Penge may be asserting his real talents.
Disappointment: Rahm
Winner: Fleetwood.
The Open
Royal Birkdale was the scene of a remarkable win for Jordan Speith in 2017 (remember the shot from the range!). It’s been lengthened and tweaked since then and the elements always plays a big factor in the Open. Maybe wide open: anyone can win this one. But let’s remember it’s basically a home game for Tommy Fleetwood and he’ll be flying after the US Open win! DeChambeau would have challenged Scheffler at Portrush last July save for a terrible first round. Maybe it’s his year?
Top five: Fleetwood, DeChambeau, MacIntyre, an American, another American … 4 of the last 5 winners were American. It’s a mystery to me why they consistently do so well on unfamiliar links!
Breakthrough: Ben Griffin or Marco Penge
Disappointment: Rahm
Winner: Fleetwood. Wow – two consecutive majors!
The Tour Championship and the FedEx Cup
Winner: wide open but Fleetwood’s two majors might put him in the frame! Scheffler’s consistency means that he could be up there even if he doesn’t feature in the Majors.
The Race to Dubai
Winner: yet another McIlroy win! Number 8, tieing Montgomery! But Fleetwood might push Rory hard!
The biggest disappointment of 2026
Rahm’s failure to make any meaningful impact in any major. A talent wasted and his best years passing by!
Anything else? Here are my two final predictions for the coming year
Eddie Pepperell has a few top tens or even better! I follow Eddie via the very excellent Chipping Forecast podcast. Regaining his Tour Card was a real highlight of 2025 for many. Here is hoping that his game develops and he really pushes on to some significant successes in 2026. I think a lot of people would be very happy!
LIV wars. Even more people would be very happy if LIV just went away! But it’s very unlikely and the sorry saga of division in men’s golf is going to run and run! However there have been signs of softening in attitude from some previously uncompromising sources!
I can’t wait! I’m sure we will all be surprised, amazed and entertained! Maybe in some parallel universe my predictions match reality. In our universe who knows?!
Craigavad golf 